Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 21.863844 23.774520 25.839002 28.246400 30.990509 34.037616 37.700315
2025-11-09 18.869051 21.482023 24.503619 28.299387 33.003234 38.727810 46.361188
2025-11-16 16.741068 19.727429 23.364875 28.213297 34.654293 43.146816 55.614584
2025-11-23 15.180286 18.380125 22.442856 28.129748 36.148156 47.505530 65.763849
2025-11-30 13.949962 17.265636 21.621313 27.974793 37.408750 51.663652 76.643677
2025-12-07 13.041030 16.451701 21.068264 28.056356 38.940603 56.436659 89.871719
2025-12-14 12.256427 15.715220 20.518915 28.030346 40.243644 61.038489 104.282914
2025-12-21 11.841235 15.442122 20.580297 28.899496 43.080707 68.858012 128.174555
2025-12-28 11.165729 14.735308 19.927274 28.547033 43.760923 72.824656 145.342606
2026-01-04 10.647977 14.215106 19.501509 28.498965 44.947866 78.036087 168.202053
2026-01-11 10.253573 13.845746 19.269427 28.735338 46.679161 84.806504 199.450561
2026-01-18 9.785501 13.331796 18.765047 28.438735 47.321599 89.312261 226.920293
2026-01-25 9.360597 12.870648 18.330618 28.257771 48.251288 94.985520 264.122356
2026-02-01 9.002345 12.492578 18.005401 28.245193 49.548961 102.067944 314.725971
2026-02-08 8.655688 12.111728 17.646801 28.131538 50.616052 108.951736 373.882036
2026-02-15 8.341445 11.763766 17.317339 28.036535 51.711880 116.358970 448.223292
2026-02-22 8.041957 11.422403 16.974240 27.877324 52.633440 123.641332 537.222507
2026-03-01 7.803772 11.167562 16.762699 27.956338 54.146807 133.516347 671.859578
2026-03-08 7.566759 10.901645 16.512718 27.929550 55.395569 143.112760 839.988353
2026-03-15 7.475526 10.872950 16.682848 28.793766 59.135824 164.032638 1253.750694
2026-03-22 7.220093 10.553655 16.303153 28.442983 59.530406 171.863008 1552.948857
2026-03-29 7.021899 10.322779 16.072305 28.395094 60.776693 184.226722 2088.729461
2026-04-05 6.872323 10.168220 15.973500 28.630194 62.900701 202.209682 3143.362684